All Blacks: Shadow of Cup looms
5:00 AM Sunday Oct 26, 2014
The clock is ticking for the All Blacks to make the case for World Cup inclusion
The World Cup is going to loom large over the All Blacks' tour to the US and Europe.
It's not just that New Zealand are trying to simulate a scenario they hope to encounter at the tail end of next year's tournament or that they will be playing at two of the World Cup grounds.
The World Cup is going to loom largest in the minds of the players on the basis some of them, quite a few in fact, are actually playing to win a place in next year's squad.
The clock is tick, tick, ticking. There are only five tests scheduled before next year's tournament and the timing of the Samoa test is such that, if there are any players involved in the Super Rugby final, they won't make the trip to Apia.
It's possible some might not even be available for the next test against Argentina, either, which will be just nine days later on a Friday night in Christchurch. Coach Steve Hansen, having been involved in both the 2007 and 2011 campaigns - as well as the 2003 tournament with Wales - knows how much pressure and tension the players can feel in the tests before the World Cup squad is announced.
In 2011, the late timing of the Tri Nations meant the All Blacks had to announce their squad before they played their final test against Australia in Brisbane. The way it worked out - Liam Messam, Hosea Gear and Jarred Hoeata were involved in the penultimate test against the Springboks in Port Elizabeth but continued home to New Zealand when they reached Sydney having been told only hours earlier they hadn't made the cut.
It wasn't that much of a surprise the All Blacks lost in Brisbane. Some players had been emotionally drained by the intensity of trying to make the squad and the whole business became a major distraction in the build up.
Things will be neater next year. The All Blacks don't have to submit their World Cup squad until after their last test against Australia in Auckland. There's little doubt, though, the selectors will form strong opinions about their likely group for England on the forthcoming tour.
Even though they have been able to take 34 to the US and Europe, the exercise of whittling down to that number was tricky enough. And that is with two senior men - Tony Woodcock and Ma'a Nonu - unavailable due to injury.
For the World Cup, they expect to take 31 players and, if they avoid an horrific injury toll in the build up, face some tough calls.
The pressure points will be in the usual places of the outside backs, midfield and loose forwards. When a player as good as Colin Slade can't make a 34-man squad, it illustrates how much competition there is.
The versatility of several players means the All Blacks have flexibility. The way Malakai Fekitoa has played in recent weeks has changed the equation. If he can retain his dynamism and awareness in Europe and add a little more composure and accuracy, he'll play his way into the World Cup squad. His ability to play both 12 and 13 is unusual and priceless, while Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams and Conrad Smith are certainties.
That means the squeeze will come on the back three. With a possible 17 forwards-14 backs split - and three halfbacks and three first fives all but guaranteed - there may only be four outside back spots.
Ben Smith, who should be sharper in Europe following his prolonged rest and opportunity to regain the weight he lost through a bout of Cellulitis, and Julian Savea are locked in. Israel Dagg, Cory Jane and Charles Piutau may be playing for two spots and this tour could go a long way to influencing the selectors' thinking.
Piutau is perhaps the man with the most potential to surge up the rankings in the next few weeks. He's a supreme talent as he showed this time last year but injury has reduced him to just 40 minutes against the Wallabies in Brisbane.
It was a good 40 minutes and he's now fitter, faster and stronger than he was in 2013 with a better body composition.
"You have always got to back yourself and believe in your abilities," he said. "I think I have had a lot of time to work on that [his injured knee] and get back to where it was and get it even better."
The crux of the decision- making at loose forward is getting the right mix. Richie McCaw and Kieran Read are non-negotiable and, probably, so too is Jerome Kaino given his proven ability to play No 8 and No 6.
Liam Messam has been such a good All Black over the past three years it's impossible to see him missing out, and Sam Cane has become a big asset with his ability to add impact from the bench and play so effectively in combination with McCaw.
It's tempting to say those five have it all sewn up, but Victor Vito has been given an opportunity to change that. A couple of big games from him on this tour and who knows?
There's also Steven Luatua to consider. He needs to provide stronger evidence he can cover lock - particularly his scrummaging. If he can do that, there's an outside chance the All Blacks might consider taking six loose forwards and three specialist locks with Luatua providing second-row cover.
That really is an outside bet because, with Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Patrick Tuipulotu and Luke Romano, the selectors believe they have the right balance between aerial skills,mobility and ball-carrying grunt at lock.
The fact Romano has been taken on tour without having played since the early rounds of Super Rugby is an indication of the esteem he's held.
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